Real Estate Market Update Fall 2025

The first half of 2025 has been a bit of a rollercoaster — think Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride with a side of global drama. With so much turbulence in the news, it’s no wonder many people are pausing before making big financial decisions. Emotions and headlines can weigh heavily on the real estate market, and this year we’ve seen that hesitation translate into fewer transactions.

But real estate is best understood through a long lens, not just the headlines of the moment. So let’s zoom out and take a clear-eyed look at what’s really happening.

Are We Headed Toward Another Real Estate Recession?

Despite the noise on social media (where clickbait thrives), today’s housing market is far more stable than some might fear.

• Most homeowners are not underwater. Nationally, only 0.2% of loans are in foreclosure — that’s near historic lows.
• Locally, Jacksonville is slightly higher at 2.0%, but still far from crisis levels.
• Equity is strong. Anyone who bought more than two years ago has likely seen significant appreciation and is sitting on a comfortable equity cushion.

The bottom line: we’re not seeing widespread financial distress forcing people to sell.

Mortgage Interest Rates: The “New Normal”

Since 2019, 30-year mortgage rates have gone from 2.7% to 7.6% — a dramatic swing! So far this year, rates have floated between 6.2% and 7.6%, with today’s average around 6.5%.

Some buyers are still waiting for rates to “go back down.” The reality? Rates under 5% aren’t likely to return anytime soon. Meanwhile, home values continue to climb in many areas — meaning that waiting often just makes buying more expensive.

Inventory: Options Galore

If you’ve been frustrated by low inventory the past few years, you’ll be relieved to know things are shifting.

• Inventory is at a 5-year high in our area.
• Nearly 43% of sellers are “testing the market” — not under pressure to sell but seeing what the market might deliver.
• Many homes are priced above market value and linger on the market longer.
• Buyers have more choices but higher expectations, which makes negotiating repairs and appraisals quickly more important than ever — about 25% of contracts are still falling through.

According to Realtor.com, “Florida still doesn’t have enough buyers relative to sellers to push prices up.” In other words, buyers currently hold the stronger hand.

Local Snapshot

Ponte Vedra Beach (August 2025):

• Average sale price: Up slightly year-over-year
• Closed sales: Down nearly 8%
• Days on market: Up 12%
• List price received: 94% (many sellers are reducing to close deals)
• Active inventory: Up 28%
• Months supply of inventory: Up 39% (at 5.5 months, we are in a buyer’s market)

Nocatee (August 2025):

• Average sale price: Down 6.5% year-over-year
• Closed sales: Up slightly
• Days on market: Down 9%
• List price received: 96.8%
• Active inventory: Up 13% (at 4.6 months of inventory)

Wrapping It Up

This is a market full of opportunity — but also one where strategy matters. Buyers can finally take their time and negotiate strong deals. Sellers can still win, but they need realistic pricing and quick responses to keep contracts together.

Our team is here to guide you through it all. Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just curious about your home’s value, we’d love to help you make smart, confident moves.