Ponte Vedra Beach & Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Report: Fall 2026
Last updated: Sept 24, 2026
So...how's the market? It's a question we hear almost every day, and the answer depends on where you're looking. National headlines provide context, but even within Northeast Florida, nearby markets can tell very different stories. That's why we look closely at the neighborhood and the homes competing with yours.
After a busy spring and summer, we're seeing signs of a slower pace. Some of that is seasonal. Families hoping to move before the school year have generally completed their searches, while buyers looking for a winter home often begin theirs in the fall. A quieter market doesn't mean homes have stopped selling. It does mean buyers may have more time to compare their options.
The Market at a Glance
- Median sale price, August vs. a year ago: St. Johns County up 3.9%, Ponte Vedra/Nocatee down 11.2%, Duval County down 1.8%
- Closed sales, August vs. a year ago: St. Johns County down 20.0%, Ponte Vedra/Nocatee down 18.1%, Duval County down 2.4%
- Months of supply: about 3.5 in all three markets
- Inventory: lower than a year ago in all three markets
- Cash purchases since 2022: 28% of sales in St. Johns County, 25% in Duval County
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.95%, the highest in about a year
Every Market Tells Its Own Story
August's numbers show just how local the market is. The median sale price for single-family homes rose 3.9% from a year earlier across St. Johns County, while it fell 11.2% in the selected Ponte Vedra and Nocatee areas. Duval County's median was down 1.8%.
A change in the median reflects the homes that sold that month. It does not mean every home in an area gained or lost that percentage of its value. That's why we always look at the neighborhood level before drawing conclusions.
August 2026 single-family homes, compared with August 2025
Fewer Sales, but No Flood of Listings
Sales activity varied from market to market. Compared with August 2025, closed sales were down 20.0% in St. Johns County and 18.1% in the selected Ponte Vedra/Nocatee areas, but only 2.4% in Duval County.
Yet available inventory was lower than a year ago in all three markets. Each had approximately three and a half months of supply in August. We're seeing a more selective market, not a sudden flood of homes for sale.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand
Rates moved higher in September. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average reached 6.95% on September 17, up from 6.76% the week before and 6.26% a year ago. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, pointing to inflation that remains elevated. The Fed meets again October 27 and 28.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate, 2016-2026
Annual averages. After record lows in 2021 and a sharp climb through 2023, rates settled in the mid-6% range before moving closer to 7% in September 2026.
Affordability remains a major part of the conversation. On a $1 million, 30-year mortgage, principal and interest would be approximately $5,996 per month at 6%, compared with $6,992 at 7.5%. That's nearly $1,000 more each month, before taxes, insurance, or other housing costs. This example assumes a $1 million loan, rather than a $1 million home purchase with a down payment.
Cash Buyers Remain a Steady Force
Cash buyers remain an important part of our local market. According to The Market Distillery, cash purchases have accounted for 28% of sales in St. Johns County and 25% in Duval County since 2022. Those buyers are less directly affected by monthly mortgage payments, which may help some segments remain resilient even as financing costs challenge other buyers.
Two Years of Northeast Florida Market Data
Regional figures for single-family homes across the six-county Northeast Florida area, as reported by the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®.
Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS® monthly market reports. Figures are single-family homes only; condominiums and townhomes are reported separately.
What the two-year view shows
The regional median dipped from June to August, which is the same late-summer pattern we've seen each of the last two years. What stands out is speed. The median home took 31 days to sell in August, compared with 46 days in September 2024 and 44 days in September 2025. Homes that are priced well are still selling faster than they were a year or two ago, even as the overall number of sales slows for the season.
Inventory fell to 6,103 homes in August, the lowest point in the two-year table.
What This Means for Buyers
Fall may offer more breathing room
A slower pace can give you time to compare homes on the market and negotiate, although conditions vary by neighborhood and price range.
Take a close look at new construction.
Some builders may offer incentives on completed homes as year-end approaches, including in communities like Nocatee and EverRange. Compare the full purchase cost and financing terms, not just the advertised incentive.
Be ready when the right home appears.
A well-priced home in good condition can still attract quick interest, even when the broader market is quieter. That's one reason we built our private MLS app. It delivers new listings faster than Zillow and never shares your search data.
What This Means for Sellers
Price for today's buyers
Starting high to "leave room to negotiate" can limit showings during a listing's first weeks, when attention is often strongest.
The time-on-market numbers tell an important story
The Market Distillery reports that 65% of this year's sales went under contract within 60 days. Every sale has its own circumstances, but the pattern is a good reminder that pricing and presentation matter from day one.
Days on market vs. share of original list price, 2026 sales
Look at the whole offer
Buyers may request repairs, closing cost assistance, or other concessions. Price matters, but so do your net proceeds, the financing, the contingencies, and the likelihood of closing. That's exactly how we sell homes.
Final Thoughts
The most useful market report is the one that answers, "What does this mean for my home or my next move?" If you're curious about your neighborhood, our team would be happy to take a closer look with you. Reach out anytime.
Sources:
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Average 6.95% (Sept 17, 2026)
- Freddie Mac PMMS weekly data on FRED (MORTGAGE30US)
- Freddie Mac PMMS main page
- NEFAR August 2026 report: Northeast Florida Market Shows Signs of a More Balanced Housing Environment
- NEFAR July 2026 report
- NEFAR June 2026 report
- NEFAR Market Stats page
- Federal Reserve implementation note, Sept 16, 2026
- Advisor Perspectives: Fed's Interest Rate Decision, Sept 16, 2026
- News4JAX: More inventory, fewer sales as Northeast Florida housing market moves toward balance in August
