Ponte Vedra Residential Real Estate End of Year Market Update 2019

The Ponte Vedra and Jacksonville Beaches real estate market stayed strong in 2019. Indicators were mostly favorable for Jacksonville, Neptune, Atlantic, and the Ponte Vedra Beaches.

Here are some important numbers:

• Ponte Vedra Beach North, South Ponte Vedra Beach and Vilano Beach – The number of active, new, under contract, and sold homes decreased in 2019, with the exception of single family residences under contract and sold in the St. Johns County portion of these areas. Single family homes saw slight increases in 2019 with an uptick of 8% in sold volume and 3% in average sale price ($841,644). Although the sold volume for condos in the area decreased in 2019, the average sale price for condos increased by 5% ($345,893).
• Nocatee – This area continued to grow in all areas in 2019. Average sold volume increased by 18% year over year, with average sale price (excluding the Duval County portion), increased by 3%. In the Duval County portion of residences, the total sold volume was up, but the average sale price dropped. Condo and townhome sales in Nocatee (St. Johns County) were large drivers of this overall growth.
• For the remaining areas of St. Johns County (NW, NE, St. Augustine, SE, SW), the number of listings, under contact, and sold units increased in 2019 as did total sold volume in dollars (13%) and average sale price (4%).

Elsewhere in the Jacksonville Beaches, sales and price increases were relatively positive.

• Neptune Beach – Slightly fewer homes sold for slightly more (9%) in 2019 over 2018. Average sale price increased by 12% to $559,272. This percentage increase was slightly more for single family residential at 14% ($623,398).
• Jacksonville Beach – The total number of residences sold decreased overall (includes condos, duplexes, townhome, etc.), but sales volume and average sale price increased in 2019. Specifically, for single family homes in Jacksonville Beach, the sold volume increased by 20% and the average sale price increased by 12%.
• Atlantic Beach – Number of total residences sold was stable between 2018 to 2019. Sold volume and average sale price slightly decreased in 2019 for this area, largely driven by a dip in prices for duplexes and single family residences. Condos and townhomes in the area saw dramatic increases in sold volume in 2019. Townhome prices also saw a dramatic increase in average sale price at 31%, bringing the price to $400,000+, over 2018.

Market Summary for 32082

From the September 2019 market trend data comparison to September 2018, in 32082, we can see that the number of listings has held steady from the same time last year – with new and sold nearly evenly matched. Sold median sale price has fluctuated a bit with a dip below and above the prices from September 2018. It’s now at about the same level at 2018 (near $500,000). The absorption rate during this period has fluctuated between about 5 and 6 months. Finally, the sold to list ratio (for 32082) has increased to above 95%.

Market Outlook

According to Realtor.com, here are some predictions for the 2020 housing market:

• “Home price growth will flatten, with a forecasted increase of 0.8 percent.
• Inventory will remain constrained, especially at the entry-level price segment.
• Mortgage rates are likely to bump up to 3.88 percent by the end of the year.
• Tight inventory and rising mortgage rates will lead to dropping sales.
• Buyers will continue to move to affordability, benefiting mid-sized markets.
• New home starts will increase, while existing home sales will drop slightly.”

Continued uncertainty about tariffs and general unease about international events will likely play a role in the strength of the 2020 US home real estate market. Depending on one’s point of view, the economy can appear both strong and weak. Employment growth continues to be strong, with the healthcare and social sector outpacing the professional and business services sector for the first time in a decade. However, GDP growth is expected to small at 1.7 percent, with economists expecting a turn in consumer confidence with the prediction of a slightly higher unemployment rate and rise of housing expenses.

Sources: Northeast Florida Multiple Listing Service, Realtor.com