2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook

Our team celebrated a great year in 2024 with over $65 million dollars in sales and 67 closings. We’re excited about 2025 and all the opportunities a new year will bring.

But first, let’s summarize 2024…Last year was a difficult year in real estate. Nationally, the number of homes sold was very low—4.6 million, well below 6 million which has been the average. Despite the widespread speculation that the Fed would lower interest rates multiple times, the average home mortgage rate started the year at near 6.7%, dropped briefly into the 6.20% range and ended the year near 6.7%. The higher than expected interest rates certainly put a damper on buyers’ enthusiasm and slowed down sales.

The 2024 market was particularly difficult for first time home buyers. Since homeownership is an important factor in gaining household wealth, these statistics are reason for concern. For example:

The median age of a first-time buyer was 32 years old in 2022, 35 years in 2023, and 38 years old in 2024 (an all time high).

There is good news to report about the Northeast Florida 2024 market:

• Inventory of available homes increased 24% higher than 2023, so buyers had more options to choose from in their home search. Now, with over four months of inventory available, we are trending towards a “Buyers market” after several years of a very strong “Sellers Market”.
• New construction sales were still very strong with 33% of the closed sales being brand new homes. (Market Distillery, January 2024). Those builders offered very attractive buyer incentives including interest rate buy-downs and credits at closing.
• Northeast Florida saw a 5.1% average appreciation for single family home values when compared to last year. (Quinton Harris, Loan People). Some parts of the state are starting to see home values dip, but our real estate market remains steady.
• Cash sales were still common, with one out of every four home purchases being made with cash.

What should we expect in 2025? Interest rates will continue to have a strong influence on buyers’ purchasing power. The widely anticipated rate cuts projected for 2025 are no longer expected. And now, its likely mortgage rates will bounce around the 7% mark for at least the first quarter, and possibly the entire year.

Jacksonville is still the most affordable major metropolitan area in the state of Florida, which is helping draw people to the First Coast. By 2030 (just 5 years from now) Jacksonville is estimated to grow to a population of 1.9 million, up from 1.7 million in 2024. (Census and FL Demographic Estimating Conference).  

Other trends keeping our local markets strong include:

• Buyer demand will continue to drive home prices up. As Baby Boomers retire many are moving to Florida. We’re also seeing a “grandparent chaser” phenomenon. Millennials are moving closer to their parents for childcare support. In fact, Jacksonville has risen to number three on the Baby Chaser Index, second only to Austin and Charleston. (Zonda; 2023 Census)
• New home builders are keeping our market moving and offering great options for buyers.  Currently, one in three homes selling in Northeast Florida are new construction. Builders are offering very attractive incentives to buyers in the form of mortgage rate buy-downs and credits at closing.
• The luxury real estate market continues to grow. In December, 143 homes in Northeast Florida sold for above $1 million dollars (up from 89 the month before).

In closing, our team is very optimistic about the Jacksonville and Ponte Vedra Beach real estate market. We’re expecting 2025 to be a great year!

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2025, please reach out to us now!  While it may seem early, our seasonal patterns of highest sales in the spring mean that now is the right time to start your planning.