Lisa Barton

Favorable trends, including increases in sales and reduction in inventory, continued through the end of the year. New listings were down 20.6% from last year (1698 versus 2138 in 2008). All of the beaches areas followed this trend, with the exception of Neptune Beach, where new listings were up slightly (from 147 to 154 or 4.8%).  Closed sales jumped 20.8% year-over-year, with Neptune Beach leading the way with the most dramatic improvement.  Homes sales in Jacksonville Beach and Atlantic Beach were increased in 2009. Ponte Vedra Beach home sales were at more modest levels, most likely due to higher average home prices.

With fewer new listings, and increased sales, inventories at the beach declined significantly. The townhouse/condo inventory dropped the fastest (25.9%) with single family homes not far behind at 19.7%. In the entire beaches area, year-end inventory is down. 

Average days on the market also improved in most communities. Neptune and Atlantic Beach led the way with a 56.5% drop in days on the market. The number of sales were up dramatically in Neptune Beach (from 35 in 2008 to 61 in 2009—a 74.3% increase) and up 31.4% in Atlantic Beach. In contrast, the number of days on the market increased 59.2% in Ponte Vedra Beach North (from 211 to 335 days).  This trend is probably due to higher listing prices for this area. 

The 2009 market remained very difficult for home sellers, particularly in the higher end bracket (over $500,000). Overall median sales prices continued to decline year-over-year (from $390,000 in 2008 to $263,000 in 2009).

ADDITIONAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET:

• The number of entry level buyers is significantly skewing the average price of houses sold.  The tax credit has now been extended through June and has expanded to include buyers who have been in their current residences for 5 years or more.  Income limits ($150,000 for individuals and $225,000 for married couples) and caps on home prices (maximum sale price of $800,000) will likely exclude buyers of higher priced properties from taking advantage of the tax credit(s).
• Interest rates remain at record low levels for conforming loans, making lower-end homes even more affordable.  Conversely, jumbo (non-conforming) loans are more difficult to secure, with many lenders demanding 20-30% down—at rates that are at least one or more points above conforming loans.
• The current economic environment with historically high unemployment rates has dampened enthusiasm for new home purchases. This is especially true for those who would traditionally be “moving up” in home size.

DISTRESSED SALES:

• Foreclosures and bank managed sales are also skewing average prices.  Only two Beaches neighborhoods (out of 12) had a distressed property share of inventory lower than 10% at year end (Neptune Beach East and Old Ponte Vedra Beach).  Five neighborhoods had banked owned inventories between 10-20%, and five neighborhoods were above 20%.  In all neighborhoods, distressed sales share of homes sold was disproportionately skewed.

• While median sales prices of traditional sales are declining, in all beaches areas the median price of lender mediated sales (distressed properties) is significantly lower, further contributing to the overall decline in market value.  In the entire North Florida area, the share of sales that are lender mediated is close to 40%, with traditional sales down 9.9% year over year, and lender mediated sales up 74.1%.  In the total Jacksonville area median sales prices dropped 18.0%.  Although the impact of distressed sales on the Beaches area has not been as severe as in some other Jacksonville communities—distressed sales are clearly still depressing prices.
• If you would like information about distressed inventory in a particular area please contact me directly and I’ll be glad to help you.

In summary, median homes prices in our area continue to decline from their peak in 2006, and for the most part have retreated to prices last seen in 2003. Lower priced homes (under $300,000) continue to sell briskly, and overall closed sales are up 20% from last year.  Other positive signs include reduced inventories and lower average days on the market in most areas.  Troubling signs include the high level of bank mediated sales, and tight credit criteria for non-conforming loans. 

Data in this report taken primarily from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtor Multiple Listing Service.